Will Your Grandchildren be Jewish?
Based
upon the data and the various population studies that are now
available, it appears that an extraordinary disintegration of the
American Jewish community is in process.
There
was a time when every Jew could take it for granted that he or she
would have Jewish grandchildren with whom to share Seders, Sabbath and
other Jewish moments. However, the clear data indicates that this
expectation is no longer well founded. Indeed, our studies show that
within a short period of time the entire complexion of the American
Jewish community will be altered inexorably.
The
research targeted three key quantifiable elements of Jewish survival:
intermarriage rates, birth rates, and levels of Jewish education. When
all of these factors are tabulated and correlated, a troubling picture
emerges of the future of American Jewry. Skyrocketing intermarriage
rates, declining birth rates, and inadequate Jewish education
continue to decimate the American Jewish people.
The
figures are pretty straightforward. Start with 100 Orthodox Jews, 100
Modern Orthodox Jews, 100 conservative Jews, 100 Reform Jews and 100
Unaffiliated Jews. Extrapolate on the basis of intermarriage rates and
average children per family how many Jews you will have left after 4
generations. That’s what Antony Gordon and Richard Horowitz did
in a study that’s got to be an eye opener for anyone concerned with
continuity and the future of the Jews in America.
So how did our original 500 Jews fare after 4 generations?
(see table below)
100
Orthodox Jews, with an intermarriage rate of 3% and an average 6.4
children per family increased their numbers to 2,588 Jews after 4
generations. 100 Modern Orthodox Jews, with an intermarriage rate of 3%
and an average of 3.23 children per family also increased their numbers
to 346 Jews.
Non-Orthodox
and unaffiliated branches of Judaism did not fare so well in the
continuity equation. 100 Conservative Jews decreased in number after 4
generations to 24 Jews (intermarriage rate: 37%, Average children per
family: 1.82). Jews affiliated with the Reform Movement also saw a
significant decrease in number after 4 generations, going from 100 Jews
to 13 (intermarriage rate: 53%, Average children per family: 1.72).
Unaffiliated Jews with an intermarriage rate of 72% and 1.62 children
per family, were left with only 5 Jews after 4 generations.
So what does this mean to the future of the Jews?
Well,
probably less investment in the manufacture and sale of Judaica aimed
at Reform and Conservative Jews. Great deals on the purchase of
formerly active Reform Synagogues will be available to those looking
for a loft space with high ceilings and the convenience of a suburb.
Long-term Jewish survival depends on four choices that each individual Jew makes: the level of personal observance;
the choice to marry another Jew;
the desire to have two or more children if possible;
the absolute priority of providing maximal Jewish education for oneself and one's children.
The
relationship among these factors is plain in the data. Choosing Jewish
observance is a result of parents having chosen a Jewish education (The
longer children are in a Jewish day school, the less parents are likely
to face the "Guess who's coming to Seder?" issue), which in turn is
likely to lead to choosing a Jewish spouse. Choosing a Jewish spouse is
likely to lead to providing a stronger educational and ritual base for
one's children, who then perpetuate the cycle.
What does all this mean to you?
I guess that all depends on your priorities.....
| Sample Population Count | |
| Average Children Per Family | Inter- marriage Rate | First Generation | Second Generation | Third Generation | Fourth Generation |
Orthodox | 6.4 | 3% | 100 | 295 | 874 | 2588 |
Modern Orthodox | 3.23 | 3% | 100 | 151 | 228 | 346 |
Conservative | 1.82 | 37% | 100 | 62 | 38 | 24 |
Reform | 1.72 | 53% | 100 | 51 | 26 | 13 |
Unaffiliated | 1.62 | 72% | 100 | 36 | 13 | 5 |
